America Faces Potential Depopulation Crisis by 2038

Population decline, or depopulation, is emerging as a significant demographic challenge for many countries, including the United States. The United Nations projects that global population growth may peak soon, with depopulation possibly starting as early as 2052. This trend is already observable in several nations, including China, Japan, South Korea, and various countries within the European Union. As of 2023, over 50 nations reported more deaths than births, indicating a need for immigration to maintain population levels.

Historically, the idea of a declining population in the United States seemed implausible. Since its founding in 1776, America has relied on high fertility and immigration rates to drive growth. In the past, American birth rates significantly outpaced those of other wealthy nations. For instance, during the colonial era, the total fertility rate was approximately seven births per woman. In the post-war period, the U.S. fertility rates averaged around 20% higher than those in Europe and 30% higher than in Japan.

Yet, fertility rates in developed countries, including the U.S., have fallen below the replacement level of about 2.1 births per woman for several decades. Between 1972 and 2008, U.S. fertility rates hovered just below the replacement threshold, but a notable decline began in 2008. By the early 2020s, the rate had dropped to 1.6 births per woman, significantly below the level needed for population stability.

The decline in natural population growth, defined as births minus deaths, has been stark. From approximately 1.8 million in annual natural increase in 2007, this figure fell to just over 500,000 by 2023. Projections from the U.S. Census Bureau suggest that the country could experience a negative natural increase by 2038, meaning deaths could exceed births within the next 13 years. Some UN models even imply that this scenario could arise as soon as next year if fertility rates remain low.

Immigration has historically been a pivotal factor in America’s demographic landscape. The nation’s population has grown more than 100 times since the signing of the Declaration of Independence, largely due to immigration. Today, the foreign-born population in the U.S. may be at its highest level in history. However, the narrative surrounding immigration is complex. For many decades, U.S. immigration policies were restrictive, especially between World War I and the mid-1960s. The influx of immigrants during the first Gilded Age led to significant social challenges, including wage suppression for less-educated American workers.

Political sentiment towards immigration has fluctuated over the years. Recent shifts in policy, particularly under the Biden administration, have sparked increased scrutiny and criticism, particularly regarding border management. The American Enterprise Institute has published research suggesting that 2025 could see a significant decline in net immigration, potentially leading to more individuals leaving the U.S. than arriving—a situation unprecedented in American history. The likelihood of a population decrease this year remains low but possible, as the nation has consistently grown even amid significant challenges like the Civil War and the 1918 influenza pandemic.

Looking ahead, the potential for depopulation carries profound implications for American society. Without robust immigration, the working-age population could begin to shrink, especially given the aging workforce. The participation rate among older Americans, particularly those over 55, is decreasing, while younger workers are also leaving the labor market. This trend raises concerns about the sustainability of entitlement programs, which are already strained by existing government debt that surpasses gross domestic product.

The challenges posed by an aging population could be exacerbated by the declining birth rate and labor force. As the number of elderly Americans continues to rise, the proportion of working-age individuals available to support them is diminishing. This mismatch could lead to a crisis in the welfare state, particularly as the government grapples with funding strategies reliant on future generations.

In conclusion, while historical trends suggest that the U.S. could adapt to demographic changes, the current landscape presents unique challenges. As Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute, notes, America may not be as prepared for depopulation today as it was in previous generations. The coming years will test the resilience of the American economy, society, and political structure in the face of potential demographic shifts.