Trump’s Trade Policies Strain Russia-Ukraine Relations Amid Ongoing Conflict

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains a pressing global issue, overshadowed by trade wars and shifting geopolitical alliances. Despite more than three-and-a-half years of fighting, recent developments indicate that both nations are increasingly isolated from international discourse. As the world focuses on other crises, like the situation in Gaza and economic instability in the U.S. and Europe, the war in Ukraine risks being forgotten.

On July 14, 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed frustration with the situation, suggesting that Ukraine could receive more U.S.-made weapons if NATO allies contributed financially. Trump also issued a stark ultimatum to Russia, demanding a ceasefire and a peace deal by September 2, 2025. If Russia fails to comply, he warned of “very severe” sanctions and secondary tariffs of up to 100%. Such measures could significantly impact Russia’s economy and its remaining trading partners, including India and China, who rely on Russian oil and gas.

Russia’s Response to International Pressures

Despite the looming deadlines and threats of sanctions, skepticism persists regarding Russia’s willingness to engage in meaningful negotiations. Analysts, including Mykola Bielieskov from Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, note that the Kremlin is likely counting on the U.S. administration’s inconsistent support for Ukraine. Bielieskov commented, “Serious secondary sanctions require a willingness to quarrel with China and India, which buy raw materials from Russia.” He further emphasized that Russia may not fear the implications of potential sanctions due to its existing trading relationships.

While Ukraine has shown some willingness to negotiate—expressing interest in a ceasefire and even considering compromises regarding occupied territories—Russia remains unyielding. Recent battlefield developments have seen Russia making incremental gains through its substantial military resources, including conscripted soldiers and advanced drone warfare.

Domestic Challenges in Ukraine

Back home, Ukraine faces mounting internal challenges that complicate its position. Discontent is growing among citizens regarding ongoing martial law, the absence of elections, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy‘s wartime leadership. Protests erupted in Kyiv last week after the government introduced measures that appeared to limit the independence of anti-corruption agencies. This has raised alarms among European Union politicians, who insist that fighting corruption is vital for Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU.

A government reshuffle in mid-July has fueled suspicions that Zelenskyy is consolidating power among loyalists, a move that could jeopardize Ukraine’s international support. According to Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Ukraine is at a crucial juncture. She stated, “Kyiv is using this interlude to recalibrate internally,” pointing to the administration’s efforts to maintain control amid growing pessimism and external pressures.

As Ukraine navigates its internal landscape, international support appears increasingly transactional. Stanovaya noted, “International support is becoming more transactional, geared primarily towards sustaining the front line rather than advancing democratic reform.” This shift may have long-term implications for Ukraine’s political stability and its relationships with Western allies.

The intersection of Trump’s trade policies and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has left both sides in a precarious situation, with the future of peace negotiations uncertain. The coming months will be critical in determining the trajectory of the war and the international community’s response.