Syria’s Road to Refugee Repatriation: Challenges Ahead

The prospect of repatriating millions of Syrian refugees has gained traction as the transitional government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa seeks to establish a framework for their return. With approximately 14 million Syrians displaced globally, including 6 million in neighboring countries and Europe, the urgency for a resolution is pressing. Several European Union states, facing domestic pressures, have begun suspending asylum claims and contemplating the deportation of Syrian refugees, raising critical questions about Syria’s readiness to safely accommodate returning citizens.

Assessing Syria’s Readiness for Repatriation

Since the fall of the Assad regime, data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) indicates that nearly 500,000 Syrians have returned from neighboring countries. However, these returnees encounter significant obstacles including ongoing insecurity, sporadic violence, and the absence of essential public services. The devastation of infrastructure and economic instability further complicates reintegration efforts, leading many in the Syrian diaspora to express concerns about safety and political stability.

Although armed conflict has diminished, the social and political landscape in Syria remains tenuous. Premature repatriation could lead to renewed displacement if conditions deteriorate. A cautious and phased return strategy is crucial, informed by the realities on the ground.

The ongoing sectarian tensions represent another major challenge. While fears of widespread violence have not materialized, deep social divisions continue to threaten stability and impede the safe return of displaced individuals. Progress has been made under the transitional government, including the formation of a more inclusive cabinet and efforts to integrate marginalized groups. Yet, targeted attacks on minority communities persist, and recent violence, such as the bombing of Mar Elias Church in Damascus, underscores the risks involved.

The Role of International Support and Local Governance

Achieving a successful repatriation process requires more than gestures from the central government. It necessitates sustained reconciliation at the local level, safety guarantees for minorities, and the restoration of basic services and livelihoods. Without these measures, returnees may face discrimination and potential harm, which could violate international humanitarian principles, notably the principle of non-refoulement, prohibiting forced returns to unsafe conditions.

International support is essential for facilitating this transition. Gulf states, including UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, have begun providing aid, while the European Union has pledged €2.5 billion for stabilization efforts. These resources must be strategically targeted towards community-based peacebuilding and reintegration programs that address the diverse needs of Syrian society. Oversight by neutral institutions, such as the UN, will ensure transparency and accountability in the allocation of funds.

It is vital that Syrians lead the reconciliation process, strengthening local governance while avoiding excessive foreign influence. Continued international aid, especially for minority rights protection, should be contingent on the transitional government’s adherence to its commitments.

Syria will only be prepared for repatriation when clear and verifiable conditions are established, including consistent security, legal protections for minorities, community readiness, and adequate infrastructure. Until these conditions are met, repatriation must remain voluntary and closely monitored.

The situation is further complicated by Syria’s healthcare crisis. Years of conflict and sanctions have devastated the healthcare infrastructure, resulting in understaffed hospitals and limited access to medical services. Additionally, the ongoing threat from landmines and unexploded devices poses a significant danger, particularly to children.

Efforts to restore healthcare must prioritize local ownership and sustainability. This involves training and supporting local medical personnel and ensuring that aid complements Syrian capacity rather than creating dependency. International donors should work with local health networks, such as the Syrian Arab Red Crescent, to foster resilience and accountability.

Addressing Property Rights and Long-term Stability

One of the most pressing challenges for returning Syrian refugees is the lack of secure property rights. Reports from the UN Syria Commission indicate widespread looting and destruction of property, primarily by former government forces. This creates significant barriers to safe return and long-term stability.

Existing laws, such as Legislative Decree No. 66 and Law No. 10, facilitate state expropriation of property, disproportionately affecting displaced individuals. Many returnees lack the necessary documentation to reclaim their properties, which deters both individuals and foreign investors from engaging in reconstruction efforts.

To address these challenges, property claims committees should be established at a regional or national level, with international oversight to ensure fairness and legitimacy. A model similar to the Commission for Real Property Claims of Displaced Persons and Refugees in Bosnia could provide a framework for resolving property disputes in Syria.

Rebuilding efforts must also focus on housing, services, and livelihoods to mitigate tensions and prevent conflicts over resources. Investments from Europe and the Gulf should support inclusive community development and minority housing protections to promote a sustainable return policy.

In conclusion, Syria’s readiness to welcome its displaced population hinges on meeting several interdependent conditions: demonstrable minority protections, a resilient healthcare system, clearance of explosive remnants, and secure property rights. A carefully coordinated repatriation plan, supported by robust international funding and active monitoring, is essential to prevent premature returns that could reignite conflict and lead to new displacements. The European Union plays a pivotal role in this process, needing to establish a comprehensive repatriation strategy linked to clear benchmarks and civilian monitoring mechanisms. These actions are necessary to ensure that the return of displaced Syrians occurs with dignity and security, paving the way for a more stable future.