Gulf States Seek Greater Role in Regional Security Amid Crisis

The recent escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran has prompted the Gulf States to reassess their roles in maintaining regional security. As tensions erupted in June 2025, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) faced renewed threats, highlighting the need for a more proactive approach. This situation raises an important question: can the GCC, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, emerge as effective middle powers to shape the region’s future?

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have demonstrated significant diplomatic ambition and economic influence. Their growing capacities allow them to engage with intricate regional dynamics while attempting to mediate conflicts. Smaller GCC members, such as Qatar and Oman, though not traditionally classified as middle powers, have also exerted considerable influence through humanitarian diplomacy and conflict resolution efforts. Despite these advancements, challenges remain, including reliance on the United States for security, deep-seated mistrust of Iran, and concerns regarding Israeli military actions.

The current geopolitical climate presents a unique opportunity for the Gulf states to take incremental steps toward enhancing security and fostering communication. Recent shifts in economic and diplomatic strategies provide a foundation for this ambition.

Economic Power and Diplomatic Ambitions

In recent years, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have transitioned from traditional energy suppliers to influential global economic players. Their sovereign wealth funds, such as the UAE’s Mubadala and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), have become significant investors in sectors like renewable energy, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and electric vehicles. This strategy not only rebrands their global image but signifies a deeper ambition to influence international economic trends.

As confidence in the reliability of the US security umbrella wanes, these Gulf states have adopted a more independent diplomatic stance. The China-brokered rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023 marked a pivotal moment, showcasing a willingness to engage with rivals and diversify alliances. Gulf states have actively participated in mediation roles across various conflicts, including Sudan, Ukraine, and the Israel-Gaza situation, reflecting a commitment to shaping diplomatic outcomes.

Furthermore, Gulf states are positioning themselves as crucial players in the global digital infrastructure landscape. Investments in subsea cable routes, data centers, and cloud computing partnerships with international tech firms are on the rise. Their involvement in discussions regarding artificial intelligence governance and cybersecurity also illustrates the integration of economic statecraft with strategic ambitions.

Addressing Strategic Vulnerability

Geographically, the Gulf states are particularly vulnerable to conflicts between Israel and Iran, especially given the significance of the Strait of Hormuz, which sees nearly 30 percent of the world’s oil transit. Any military confrontation in this area poses risks not just to energy supplies but to global economic stability.

The June escalation resulted in immediate consequences, including cancelled or rerouted flights by major airlines like Emirates and Qatar Airways. Although no direct attacks occurred in the Strait of Hormuz, tensions escalated following incidents involving oil tankers, leading to price volatility in the oil market.

The GCC’s response to the crisis was characterized by a mix of condemnation and cautious diplomacy. At extraordinary sessions, foreign ministers collectively denounced Israeli actions against Iran, citing violations of international law and threats to regional stability. Yet, underlying this unity was a divergence in strategy among member states.

Oman, known for its mediating role, expressed its discontent over the Israeli strikes, emphasizing the destabilizing impact on regional diplomacy. Qatar, which faced direct repercussions from the conflict, sought to broker a ceasefire, reaffirming its status as a diplomatic intermediary. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman framed the Israeli aggression as a threat to regional stability, suggesting a tactical shift in rhetoric.

Despite the apparent unity, some Gulf leaders may privately welcome the degradation of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, indicating a complex interplay of interests within the GCC. Responses from Bahrain and Kuwait were more reserved, focusing on conflict mitigation while avoiding overt alignments.

The ceasefire following the June escalation has so far held, yet the region remains on edge. Renewed hostilities could have dire economic and humanitarian consequences. The GCC has called for urgent warnings to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in light of the renewed conflict, reflecting a pragmatic shift towards supporting revived negotiations.

The Gulf states find themselves navigating a volatile environment where the US’s diminishing presence has exposed the limitations of external security guarantees. While they might be constrained by capacity and regional rivalries, this crisis could catalyze a more pragmatic approach, with even minor steps potentially leading to a more resilient security framework.

Functional cooperation initiatives, such as a regional early warning system and a nuclear safety initiative, represent opportunities for collaboration. These mechanisms could include shared protocols for data exchange and promote safety standards in light of expanding civilian nuclear programs. Additionally, a health and pandemic preparedness consortium could encourage cooperation among GCC states, Iran, and Israel, focusing on public health security.

While these initiatives may not resolve deep-rooted rivalries, they can help mitigate risks and establish communication channels. Gulf sovereign wealth funds could also be leveraged to incentivize cooperation, fostering an environment where economic benefits encourage restraint.

The conflict between Israel and Iran has highlighted the Gulf states’ vulnerabilities but also revealed their potential for diplomatic engagement. As Saudi Arabia and the UAE begin to position themselves as stabilizers rather than mere reactors to crises, they face the challenge of translating influence into actionable initiatives.

With sustained diplomatic efforts and strategic clarity, the Gulf states could carve a path towards a more stable regional order, marking a significant shift in their roles as emerging middle powers.