Tropical Storm Melissa Delivers Heavy Rain, Threatens Flooding

Tropical Storm Melissa has stalled in the central Caribbean, unleashing significant rainfall on Haiti and Jamaica, resulting in at least three fatalities and the destruction of infrastructure. As the storm continues to linger, forecasters predict the potential for further heavy rain, raising concerns about catastrophic flooding.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has reported that over the last few days, certain areas of the Dominican Republic have recorded approximately 15 inches of rain. In a statement on Friday, Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the NHC, described the rainfall forecast as “ominous.” He warned that regions near Haiti and Jamaica could see up to 20 inches of rain in the next three days, compounding the already severe conditions.

Storm Progression and Expected Intensification

By early next week, Melissa is expected to strengthen into a formidable Category 4 hurricane, moving westward over some of the warmest waters in the Caribbean. This intensification poses a significant threat as the storm brushes past Jamaica and crosses Cuba before making its way into the Atlantic.

As of 12:30 p.m. Eastern time on Friday, Melissa’s movement had slightly accelerated to 2 mph, with maximum sustained winds reaching 60 mph. Most of the storm’s intense rain and winds are concentrated on its eastern side. A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch remain in effect for Haiti’s southwestern peninsula and all of Jamaica.

Tragically, the storm’s impacts are already being felt. Haiti’s government reported that one man died and five others were injured due to winds and floods attributed to Melissa. Additionally, two fatalities and one injury occurred in Fontamara, a commune in Port-au-Prince, as a result of a landslide on Thursday.

Future Implications for the Region

As the storm remains largely stationary, it is expected to continue drenching the central Caribbean with rain throughout the weekend. Currently, Melissa is caught in a pocket of wind shear that is moderating its intensity. However, this shear is expected to diminish in the coming days, allowing the storm to strengthen as it approaches Category 4 status by Sunday evening.

Forecasters noted that once Melissa’s structure improves, conditions could become favorable for rapid intensification. The NHC’s forecast track extends only to Wednesday, indicating a Category 4 Melissa making landfall on Cuba’s southeast coast. Long-range models suggest that after crossing Cuba, the storm will likely head northeast, avoiding a direct impact on Florida.

The timing of Melissa’s turn to the northeast is crucial for Jamaica and Haiti. An earlier turn could result in a weaker storm, potentially slowed by landfall on Jamaica before reaching Cuba. Conversely, a later turn would allow Melissa to gain strength over the warm Caribbean waters, which have remained storm-free this season.

In anticipation of the storm’s trajectory, Rhome cautioned that the Bahamas may be next in line for impacts from Melissa.

As the situation evolves, residents in affected areas are advised to remain vigilant and prepared for continued severe weather conditions.