Vance and Newsom Lead in Early Presidential Nomination Polls

According to a recent Yale Youth Poll, if the presidential election were to occur tomorrow, Vice President JD Vance would be the leading candidate for the Republicans, with 51% of respondents indicating they would vote for him. The poll, conducted by Verasight, surveyed 3,426 registered voters from October 29 to November 11, 2025, with a margin of error of +/- 1.7 points. California Governor Gavin Newsom emerges as the Democratic frontrunner, garnering 25% support.

Vance’s dominance is evident as he leads Donald Trump Jr. by a significant margin of 43 points, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trails with just 6%. Interestingly, a substantial 79% of respondents believe DeSantis could win the 2028 general election against a Democrat, with 71% expressing similar confidence in Vance’s electoral viability.

The poll highlights generational divides among voters. Only 20% of individuals aged 18-22 and 28% of those aged 23-29 would support Trump in a hypothetical 2028 GOP primary, contrasting sharply with older respondents. A majority of voters over 45 indicated they would back Trump for a potential third term. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also acknowledged Vance’s status as the GOP front-runner.

On the Democratic side, Newsom’s 25% support places him ahead of notable figures such as former Vice President Kamala Harris, who has 18%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 16%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg with 14%. The Yale Youth Poll analysis suggests a wider variation in support among Democratic candidates, indicating developing bases of support across demographic lines.

The data reveals that Ocasio-Cortez appeals strongly to voters under 35, leading with 32% in that demographic. Newsom is favored among male voters (32%), as well as among White (27%) and Hispanic (27%) Democrats. In contrast, Harris garners the most support from female (24%) and Black (47%) Democrats.

In terms of electability, the poll indicates that 85% of Democrats view Newsom as the candidate most likely to win against a generic Republican in the general election. This perception of electability plays a crucial role as candidates position themselves for the upcoming primaries.

The Yale Youth Poll provides valuable insights into the evolving landscape of the 2028 presidential race. As the political climate continues to shift, both Vance and Newsom appear to be solidifying their positions as leading candidates for their respective parties.