Week 3 Fantasy Football: Key Players to Watch for Increased Targets

As the NFL moves into Week 3, fantasy football players are keenly focused on identifying which athletes might see an uptick in targets. Utilizing an innovative framework based on an XGBOOST model and extensive route-level data from Pro Football Focus (PFF), analysts are better equipped to predict target distributions. The insights drawn from this data can provide a competitive advantage for those engaged in fantasy leagues.

Leading Players in Predicted Targets

One standout in the early season is Zay Flowers, who currently leads the league in Share of Predicted Targets. Prior to the season, he was identified as a potential breakout candidate, and his performance thus far has validated those predictions. Should the Baltimore Ravens increase their passing attempts, Flowers is poised to maintain his strong target share.

Another player garnering attention is DeVonta Smith of the Philadelphia Eagles. While he has demonstrated impressive metrics in predicted targets, a limited number of attempts from quarterback Jalen Hurts has hindered his fantasy output. As the season progresses and Hurts is forced to throw more frequently, Smith’s value is likely to rise.

In an unexpected turn, Juwan Johnson leads all NFL tight ends in Share of Predicted Targets. With 84 routes run and a pivotal role in the New Orleans Saints offense, Johnson’s presence on the field is essential for maintaining his fantasy relevance. Although his PFF receiving grade stands at 61.6, his target share may increase as the season develops.

Emerging from a challenging offensive situation last year, Rome Odunze appears to be on the brink of a breakout. His elite college profile and substantial predicted targets have set the stage for his potential ascent. Currently, he holds the 17th-best PFF receiving grade among wide receivers, suggesting significant upside moving forward.

Analyzing Week 2 Performance

The predictive model performed admirably in Week 2, with notable successes among players such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, and A.J. Brown, who all achieved substantial target shares. St. Brown led with 11 targets, representing a remarkable 39% target share, while Collins and Brown followed closely, showcasing their respective abilities to capitalize on opportunities.

The Week 2 recap indicates potential areas for improvement as well. Players like Demario Douglas and Khalil Shakir were significant misses in terms of predicted performance, underscoring the volatility that can affect fantasy outcomes.

Looking ahead, Kyle Pitts has emerged as the NFL’s second tight end in Share of Predicted Targets. This development is particularly promising for the Atlanta Falcons as quarterback Michael Penix Jr. gains experience. Pitts achieved a career-high predicted target share of 32.1%, signaling a shift in his potential impact on the field.

While the landscape of fantasy football remains dynamic, insights from predictive modeling continue to guide players in making informed decisions. As analysts monitor player performances and trends, the ability to recognize potential breakout candidates could be pivotal in achieving success in fantasy leagues.