Powerful Solar Storm Expected to Bring Auroras Across the US

A powerful solar storm is set to reach Earth on March 4, 2024, potentially allowing residents in the United States to witness stunning auroras much farther south than usual. The anticipated display of northern lights may extend not only across the northern states but also into parts of the lower Midwest and even Oregon. This information comes from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

Scientists categorize space weather conditions on a scale from G1, indicating minor storms, to G5, denoting severe conditions. The forecast for Monday night predicts moderate storm activity, likely at G2 or G3 levels early in the evening. As the storm progresses, it may escalate to a rare G4 designation by Tuesday morning, according to the UK’s Meteorological Office.

The potential auroras could be visible as far south as upper Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, upstate New York, and northern New England. The UK’s Met Office further noted that the auroras might also be seen across much of the UK, especially in dark, cloudless conditions. Nonetheless, visibility may be hindered in some areas due to a waxing gibbous Moon.

Understanding the Solar Storm

The auroras are a result of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred on March 2, 2024. During this event, large clouds of ionized gas, known as plasma, along with magnetic fields, erupted from the sun’s outer atmosphere, traveling at speeds exceeding 2 million miles per hour. NOAA estimates that this material will arrive on Earth on the evening of March 4, with peak activity expected between 2:00 a.m. and 5:00 a.m. Eastern Time on March 5.

When these solar particles collide with atoms and molecules in Earth’s upper atmosphere, they cause various elements to emit light in different colors. For example, oxygen emits a green hue, while nitrogen can produce shades of blue and purple. While current forecasts do not indicate another CME is on its way, the sun is experiencing heightened activity known as the “solar maximum.” This year represents the peak of an 11-year cycle, suggesting that more solar storms and spectacular auroras could follow.

Several geomagnetic storms over the past year have already led to remarkable displays of northern lights, including significant events in May 2024 and a particularly strong storm in October.

Impacts Beyond the Auroras

Shawn Dahl, a space weather forecaster at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, commented on the storm’s potential, stating, “This CME is very Earth-directed, but that doesn’t mean it will pack a punch like storms from last year or even earlier this year.” While NOAA has not issued a G4 “watch” as the UK has, Dahl indicated that there is a possibility of reaching G4 levels if conditions align favorably as the CME approaches.

The Space Weather Prediction Center estimates that the CME will reach the 1-million-mile mark approximately 20 to 50 minutes before impacting Earth. In addition to the mesmerizing auroras, such solar activity can lead to minor technological disruptions. These may include GPS satellite interference, radio signal disruptions, and potential power grid interruptions. NOAA has stated that while limited, minor effects on technological infrastructure are possible, they are generally manageable with the expected moderate-to-strong solar storm on the horizon.

As this solar storm approaches, many will be hoping for clear skies to enjoy the natural light show that could illuminate the night sky across a much wider area than typical aurora displays.