NASA Safety Panel Flags Potential Years of Delay for Starship Lunar Lander

NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel has raised significant concerns about the timeline for the lunar lander version of SpaceX’s Starship, indicating it may not be ready for the Artemis 3 mission, scheduled for 2027. During a public meeting held on September 19, 2023, panel members expressed doubts about the readiness of the Human Landing System (HLS), suggesting it could be “years late” in meeting its target.

Panelist Paul Hill highlighted that their assessment followed a visit to SpaceX’s Starbase facility, where they engaged in discussions with company executives. Hill, accompanied by fellow panelists and former astronauts Charlie Precourt and Kent Rominger, outlined the challenges faced in meeting the HLS schedule.

One of the critical issues identified involves the successful demonstration of cryogenic propellant transfer, which is essential for refueling Starship in low Earth orbit before proceeding to the moon. According to Hill, delays in the development of version 3 of Starship, which is required for these operations, have contributed to the setbacks. Furthermore, improvements to the Raptor engine, also in version 3, are ongoing.

While Hill did not provide specific details on the challenges, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell expressed similar concerns about propellant transfer during her address at World Space Business Week on September 16, 2023. She mentioned that this aspect worried her more than the process of docking Starships in orbit, saying, “Hopefully it’s not as hard as some of my engineers think it could be.”

Despite these scheduling worries, the panel acknowledged SpaceX’s achievements, particularly noting the rapid launch tempo of the Falcon 9 rocket, largely driven by the Starlink program. Hill remarked on the “unprecedented experience” that SpaceX has gained in spacecraft and booster manufacturing, emphasizing the impact on reliability and cost reduction.

Yet, he cautioned that this rapid pace could lead to competing priorities for Starship and HLS development, which may ultimately affect the Artemis mission timeline. The panel previously indicated safety risks associated with low flight rates in other programs, such as the Space Launch System and Orion.

During the meeting, panel member Bill Bray voiced broader concerns about the Artemis program’s trajectory. He confirmed that preparations for Artemis 2, scheduled for launch in early 2026, are progressing as planned. However, he described the path for Artemis 3 and subsequent missions as “uncertain and a little murky.”

Bray pointed out that the timelines for HLS and the development of new lunar spacesuits by Axiom Space are particularly aggressive. He warned, “Any delay in the delivery of these programs places the planned lunar landing in jeopardy of postponement and/or significant delay.” He emphasized the essential nature of these components to the success of Artemis 3 and future missions, advocating for a critical assessment of their timelines in relation to the overall mission schedule.

The panel intends to continue its review of the Starship HLS program, including a comprehensive examination of the design and the requirements for cryogenic propellant transfer, in upcoming meetings. As the Artemis program progresses, the need for clarity regarding the timelines and capabilities of the HLS becomes increasingly vital for ensuring the success of lunar exploration efforts.