Russia’s Strikes on Kyiv Escalate Amid Ukraine’s Oil Attacks

A significant missile strike in Kyiv on March 15, 2024, resulted in the deaths of at least 23 people and appears to be a retaliatory response from Russia for Ukraine’s intensified missile attacks on Russian oil refineries. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated, “Ukraine recently dealt a blow to Russia’s oil refineries,” noting that Ukraine has successfully targeted approximately 20 percent of Russia’s oil refining capacity throughout August.

The ongoing conflict, which has now persisted for over three and a half years, has seen Ukraine develop advanced long-range missile capabilities. These developments may signal a turning point in the war. By targeting critical infrastructure, Ukraine seeks to diminish Russia’s oil export revenues, which are vital for funding its military operations. Over the course of August, Ukraine has reportedly struck 10 different refineries, exploiting weaknesses in Russian air defenses to conduct repeated attacks.

Military analyst David Axe highlighted the potential impact of these strikes, suggesting that they could significantly compromise Russia’s ability to finance its military. He remarked that new, more powerful Ukrainian cruise missiles are set to become operational, potentially exacerbating the challenges faced by Russia’s oil industry.

The Ukrainian offensive has also disrupted crucial oil transport routes. Attacks on the Druzhba pipeline and the Ust-Luga port have caused severe damage, with forecasts indicating that Ust-Luga, a key post-Soviet facility, may only operate at half capacity in the near future. Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted the Druzhba pipeline multiple times this month, which has raised concerns among neighboring countries like Hungary and Slovakia, both of which benefit from importing Russian oil at reduced prices.

As videos of explosions at refineries circulate online, Ukraine’s strategy also includes targeting lesser-known rail hubs across Russia. Key locations such as Kamenolomni and Kryazh are being struck to disrupt the movement of military supplies, which largely rely on Russia’s extensive rail network — the third largest in the world.

A Russian digital bulletin board, Rospartizan, echoed these sentiments, suggesting that the vastness of the Russian Federation and the vulnerabilities of its transport infrastructure present critical advantages for Ukraine. Reports indicate that ongoing drone attacks have hindered rail operations, leading to increased gasoline shortages across Russia.

In a notable escalation, the missile strike on Kyiv marked Russia’s most substantial aerial assault since World War II. The attack involved approximately 600 drones and 31 missiles, targeting residential areas rather than military installations. Keith Kellogg, a former envoy to Ukraine, condemned these actions, emphasizing the threat they pose to civilian life and peace efforts.

The timing of the strike raises questions about the future of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Following a recent summit in Anchorage, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be retreating from commitments to engage in dialogue with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz remarked that a meeting between the two leaders is unlikely in the immediate future.

In an effort to revive diplomatic discussions, Steve Witkoff, a special envoy from the United States, is set to meet with a high-ranking Ukrainian delegation in New York. The outcome of these potential negotiations remains uncertain as both sides continue to grapple with the ongoing conflict and its devastating impacts on civilian populations.