Trump Faces Declining Support; Can MAGA Base Revive His Image?

Donald Trump is experiencing a significant decline in public support, a trend that has accelerated since the Republican Party’s losses in the recent off-year elections. According to a new YouGov/Economist poll, Trump’s approval rating has dropped to just 38 percent. With three years remaining in his second term and further electoral challenges looming, the pressing question is whether he can regain his footing or if he is on a trajectory toward political irrelevance.

The decrease in Trump’s support is exacerbated by growing concerns regarding his health and a noticeable reduction in his public appearances. Observers have noted instances during recent Cabinet meetings where Trump appeared to fall asleep, raising questions about his engagement. Despite a flurry of late-night social media activity, he seems increasingly detached from current events, a perception that threatens to undermine his image as a vigorous political leader.

In an attempt to reclaim the spotlight, Trump has been active on his Truth Social platform, making controversial statements. He referred to Minnesota Governor Tim Walz in derogatory terms and continued disparaging remarks about Representative Ilhan Omar, among others. Moreover, he has proposed extreme measures regarding immigration, including suggestions to revoke citizenship from naturalized immigrants.

Polls indicate that Trump’s policy positions, including those on immigration and the economy, are becoming less popular. For the first time, he has recorded a net negative approval rating across major polls, as reported by the New York Times. In the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats currently lead Republicans by a staggering 14 percentage points, suggesting a strong potential for Democratic gains in both the House and the Senate.

While Trump’s relationship with the general public may be faltering, he still retains substantial support among his Republican base. His popularity stands at 88 percent among Republican voters, a decline of only six points since his inauguration in January. This suggests that while his overall approval ratings may be sinking, his core supporters remain steadfast.

However, key segments of Trump’s electoral coalition are expressing dissatisfaction. Latino voters, who previously showed support for him, are increasingly disillusioned due to his stringent immigration policies. Additionally, young voters, who once leaned towards Trump, are distancing themselves as economic challenges mount and promises remain unfulfilled. Independent voters, crucial to his past victories, are also showing signs of discontent.

The fallout from the recent government shutdown and Trump’s management style is contributing to a decline in support among Republicans, as evidenced by an AP-NORC poll. Issues such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, and controversial domestic policies are further straining his relationship with voters.

Despite these challenges, Trump’s loyal base remains unwavering. As CNN political analyst Harry Enten notes, Republican voters remain “rock solid for Trump.” This can be attributed to the unique nature of the MAGA movement, which has evolved into a personal and emotional attachment to Trump himself. The movement transcends conventional political dynamics, resembling a personality cult where loyalty is deeply ingrained.

Recent interviews conducted by NBC News with Trump supporters reveal a complex relationship with the former president. While many express frustration over unmet expectations, particularly regarding economic issues, none reported regretting their support for Trump over Kamala Harris. The prevailing sentiment among supporters seems to be rooted in a profound loyalty to Trump, viewing him as a figure who speaks authentically compared to traditional politicians.

Despite the narrative emerging from some political commentators that Trump is becoming a “lame duck” president, evidence suggests that his influence may endure beyond his time in office. Research from the SNF Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University indicates that a significant 85 percent of Republicans believe the party is on the right path under Trump’s influence.

Transparency around the challenges facing Trump is essential. While some supporters are expressing disappointment, especially concerning the stagnant economy and government shutdown, a notable portion remains committed to him. It is important to note that public opinion polls often reflect a moment in time and can change rapidly in the current political climate.

Trump’s ability to navigate this decline remains uncertain. His loyal followers are unlikely to abandon him, but whether they can revitalize his political standing is a pivotal question. Historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat noted that the realization of political challenges may initially be dismissed by hard-core supporters, but the ultimate impact on American democracy remains to be seen.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, it is clear that while Trump faces significant hurdles, the MAGA movement’s resilience and potential to shape future elections cannot be underestimated.