Pakistan’s Army Chief Expands Power as U.S. Strengthens Ties

The United States is enhancing its diplomatic and military ties with Pakistan, coinciding with a significant consolidation of power by Islamabad’s military chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. This shift has raised concerns about the potential for increased military dominance in a nation where the military has long held substantial influence over the state. Recent legislative changes have further entrenched this power dynamic, as the Pakistani parliament passed a constitutional amendment granting Munir lifetime immunity from arrest and prosecution. This legislation, signed into law on September 28, 2023, effectively expands the military’s reach over Pakistan’s political and judicial frameworks.

Washington’s renewed engagement with Munir comes after years of strained relations regarding counterterrorism policies. He has visited the White House twice in recent months and attended the retirement ceremony of General Michael E. Kurilla, former head of U.S. Central Command, in August. This growing collaboration reflects a shift in U.S. strategy, moving away from efforts to democratize foreign nations. Many American officials are now prioritizing stability and military cooperation over concerns regarding Munir’s increasing authoritarian grip.

Despite this evolving relationship, there are significant concerns about Pakistan’s role in supporting terrorism. In May, India launched Operation Sindoor, targeting terror bases in Pakistan following an attack on Hindu tourists in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. Reports indicate that, in response, Islamabad has facilitated the reconstruction and relocation of terror groups, including Jaish-e-Mohammed, which have moved their operations from Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Intelligence sources suggest that this group held public rallies under police protection, highlighting Islamabad’s ongoing support for militant activities.

The September 14, 2023, recruitment rally organized by Jaish-e-Mohammed, featuring a talk by Maulana Mufti Masood Ilyas Kashmiri, raises alarms about the military’s tacit endorsement of extremist groups. Reports also link Jaish-e-Mohammed to a car-bomb explosion near Delhi’s Red Fort on November 10, 2023, which resulted in 13 fatalities and numerous injuries. Such developments cast doubt on the effectiveness of U.S. support for Pakistan as a counterterrorism ally.

Pakistan’s geostrategic relevance has diminished, complicating its relationship with the United States. Over the past two decades, Islamabad’s strategic depth doctrine aimed to establish a friendly regime in Kabul to counter Indian influence. However, the Taliban’s changing dynamics have undermined this strategy. On October 9, 2023, Pakistani airstrikes targeted the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan in Kabul, coinciding with the Afghan foreign minister’s visit to India and the reopening of the Indian embassy in Kabul. These actions underscore Islamabad’s growing anxiety about the Taliban’s ties with India and its loss of control over this once-compliant proxy.

Moreover, the collapse of the strategic depth policy has implications for Pakistan’s internal stability. Rising Pashtun nationalism is challenging the dominance of the Punjabi political structure. As separatist sentiments gain traction, Balochistan—already home to independence movements—could also see increased unrest. The Taliban’s evolving identity as a nationalist movement further diminishes Pakistan’s leverage over Pashtun communities, both within its borders and in Afghanistan.

Field Marshal Munir’s consolidation of power, coupled with the military’s response to internal and external pressures, reflects deep-seated insecurities in Pakistan’s ruling elite. In stark contrast, India is emerging as a dominant power in South Asia. With aspirations to become a technological superpower by 2035, India’s demographic strength, economic resilience, and diplomatic initiatives position it as a key player in shaping regional politics.

The faltering of Pakistan’s strategic depth policy, along with its retreat into authoritarianism, hampers its economic progress and diminishes its influence in the region. As Islamabad continues to perceive India as its primary adversary, it maintains support for militant proxies and aggressive military posturing. For the United States, prioritizing Pakistan over India may prove to be a short-sighted strategy. As Pakistan’s regional influence declines, it risks becoming increasingly isolated, while India’s stature and capabilities continue to grow.

In light of these developments, it is crucial for the United States to reassess its South Asia strategy. A balanced approach that acknowledges the shifting dynamics in the region will be essential to safeguard long-term stability and protect American interests.