U.S. Strengthens Ties With Pakistan as Military Power Grows

As the United States seeks to strengthen its relationship with Pakistan, Islamabad’s military chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is consolidating his authority in a nation historically characterized by military dominance. Recent developments include a constitutional amendment that significantly expands Munir’s powers and grants him lifetime immunity from arrest and prosecution. This move, signed into law on September 28, 2023, raises concerns about the military’s increasing influence over Pakistan’s political and judicial landscape.

Washington’s engagement with Munir has intensified, with the military chief visiting the White House twice in recent months. In August, he attended the retirement ceremony of former Central Command chief, General Michael E. Kurilla. After years of tension regarding counterterrorism policies, the U.S. is now focused on rebuilding military and economic ties with Pakistan. Under the America First policy, American officials seem to overlook the implications of Munir’s growing power, which raises alarms about the trajectory towards potential dictatorship.

Reports indicate that while the U.S. views Pakistan as a partner in the fight against terrorism, this assessment may be flawed. Following India’s Operation Sindoor, launched in May to dismantle terrorist bases in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, intelligence suggests that Islamabad has been aiding terror groups. Allegations include compensating these groups, repairing their facilities, and relocating them to regions perceived as safer from Indian strikes.

According to sources, the Jaish-e-Mohammed terror organization has been particularly active, holding rallies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa under police protection. On September 14, 2023, the group conducted a recruitment rally, further indicating the military’s tolerance or support of such activities. Reports link a Jaish-e-Mohammed module to a recent car bomb explosion near Delhi’s Red Fort, which resulted in 13 fatalities.

Another critical aspect for Washington to consider is Pakistan’s diminishing status as a strategic ally. Its longstanding strategic depth doctrine, aimed at maintaining influence in Afghanistan, has faltered. The Taliban, once perceived as a controllable ally, are now asserting their autonomy. On October 9, 2023, Pakistani aircraft targeted positions of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan in Kabul, coinciding with an official visit to India by Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.

The shifting dynamics in Afghanistan highlight Islamabad’s declining influence, as the Taliban increasingly pursue their national interests rather than defer to Pakistani directives. This loss of control has implications for Pakistan’s internal stability, as growing discontent among the Pashtun population threatens to exacerbate regional tensions. If Pashtun separatism gains momentum, it could lead to further fragmentation of the country, especially in Balochistan, where independence movements already have significant support.

The consolidation of power by Field Marshal Munir amid these challenges reflects a deeper insecurity within Pakistan’s ruling elite. In contrast, India is emerging as a significant power in the region, positioned to become a major technological leader by 2035. As the world’s largest democracy, India is cultivating influence through its economic strength, diplomatic initiatives, and technological advancements.

The decline of Pakistan’s strategic depth policy, coupled with its retreat into authoritarianism, constrains its economic development and regional influence. Despite viewing India as its primary adversary, Pakistan’s support for proxy groups and aggressive posturing may no longer yield the desired results. For the United States, prioritizing ties with Islamabad at the expense of its relationship with New Delhi could be a strategic miscalculation, as Pakistan’s influence wanes and India’s role on the global stage strengthens.

Ultimately, recalibrating its strategy in South Asia may be essential for the U.S. to ensure long-term stability and safeguard its interests in the region. As the geopolitical landscape evolves, the implications of Pakistan’s internal dynamics and its relationship with the U.S. will be critical to monitor.