Poll Shows Mamdani Leads Mayoral Race, Cuomo Gains Ground

A recent poll indicates that Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani maintains a substantial lead in the upcoming New York City mayoral election. Conducted by AARP in partnership with Gotham Polling & Analytics between October 14-15, 2025, the survey highlights Mamdani’s 14-point advantage over former Governor Andrew Cuomo and a 24-point lead over Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa. With just 15 days until the election on November 4, 2025, Mamdani commands 43.2% of voter support, compared to Cuomo’s 28.9% and Sliwa’s 19.4%, leaving 8.4% of voters undecided.

While Mamdani’s lead appears robust, the margin narrows significantly in a hypothetical scenario where Sliwa withdraws from the race. In that case, Mamdani would attract 44.6% of voter support, while Cuomo’s backing would surge to 40.7%, resulting in a mere 3.9% difference between the two candidates. This narrowing falls within the poll’s margin of error, indicating a potential shift in voter sentiment.

The poll surveyed a sample of 1,040 likely general election voters in New York City, utilizing a text-to-web methodology. In a previous poll conducted when Mayor Eric Adams and independent candidate Jim Walden were still in the race, Mamdani held an 18-point lead overall and an 11-point edge in a direct matchup against Cuomo.

Cuomo has seized upon these findings, suggesting that they reflect a tightening race. He characterized the contest as a “dead heat” and claimed that voters would opt to “discard” Sliwa to avoid a Mamdani administration. Cuomo’s campaign has criticized Mamdani’s political experience, questioning his readiness to lead the city.

In contrast, Sliwa’s campaign spokesperson, Daniel Kurzyna, dismissed the implications of the recent polling data, alleging that the results favor Cuomo. He emphasized a rising trend in Sliwa’s support, noting a 3-point increase since the last AARP poll. “Even with questions slanted in his favor, it still confirms what New Yorkers know: Curtis Sliwa’s campaign is surging,” Kurzyna stated, asserting that Sliwa would remain in the race until the end.

Mamdani’s campaign has also taken aim at Cuomo, accusing him of seeking assistance following a disappointing primary election outcome. Campaign spokesperson Dora Pekec alleged that Cuomo is resorting to support from President Donald Trump and his wealthy donors. “New Yorkers are ready to turn the page on the billionaire-backed politics of the past,” Pekec claimed, highlighting Mamdani’s large volunteer base of 87,000 supporters.

The AARP poll underscores the importance of older voters, particularly those aged 50 and above, in determining the election’s outcome. According to the findings, 80% of undecided voters fall within this age group, with nearly half of voters aged 65 and over remaining undecided. Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director, noted that this demographic is crucial, stating, “Voters age 50 and older make up the vast majority of those still undecided, and as the most reliable voting bloc, they will determine who leads this city.”

Finkel identified the rising cost of living and healthcare as significant concerns for senior voters. She emphasized the need for leadership that instills confidence in New York’s direction while addressing affordability and safety, issues that resonate with voters across generations.

As the election date approaches, the dynamics of the race continue to evolve, with candidates adjusting their strategies in response to polling data and voter sentiment. The outcome remains uncertain, but the next two weeks will be critical in shaping who will lead New York City in the coming years.